ForgeTax Forging Mechanics: Odds, Sword Value and Frenzy

What can a strike roll?

Success normally adds one level, Great adds two, Hold keeps the grade, Damage takes one level to a minimum of +0, and Break destroys the sword. Relics can add follow-up effects or convert Break into Damage.

Does 15% less Break mean 15 percentage points?

No. The official October 6 announcement gives this example: a 40% Break chance reduced by 15% becomes 34%, because 40% × 0.85 = 34%. It does not become 25%.

Adding two tickets is also not the same as adding two percentage points. The complete outcome weights are normalized, and grade, other relics and Frenzy all affect the displayed odds. Read the current panel for the next strike.

Unmodified reference Break chances include 0% at +0, about 5.9% at +2, 24.8% at +4, 29.7% at +5 and 46.7% at +10. These explain the curve; they are not your modified build’s exact odds.

How is sword value structured?

A useful model is (base × 1.5^grade + flat bonuses) × other multipliers, followed by rounding. A normal fresh blade starts at 320 G. Greats and relics can make the actual value differ from 320 × 1.5^grade.

A base-value increase grows with future grade. A flat increase is not automatically added to base, although other multipliers may still affect it. Patched Apron’s +140 G per Damage is a flat payoff, not +140 to the blade’s base value.

Why is a Great more than two ordinary upgrades?

Two Successes multiply the grade portion by 1.5² = 2.25. After the October 6 overhaul, a Great targets a 2.5× sword-value multiplier and retains its additional value effect, so two +10 swords can have different values.

Do not multiply the two-grade increase and the 2.5× again to claim a 5.625× result. They describe the grade and value settlement of the same event. Extra levels, flat bonuses and other relic effects complicate the final displayed number.

Does Damage erase the sword’s accumulated growth?

Usually not. It lowers grade, while flat bonuses and accumulated multiplier effects can remain. Cracked Crown and Iron Comb can also add flat value when Damage occurs, so grade alone can understate the blade’s worth.

The October 6 announcement explicitly allows Damage triggers at +0 and when grade loss is prevented. Abyssal Pearl can therefore enable early protected Damage payoffs. Whether the whole cycle is profitable still depends on your relics and the sword surviving.

What exactly changes during Frenzy?

At ten charge, the next strike begins the base four-second window and removes Break from the outcome pool. Damage and Hold remain. Frenzy no longer increases base hammer speed by itself; speed, duration and special relic effects are separate.

Actual strikes per window depend on the interval, animation and frame rate. Have a stopping decision ready when the window ends rather than assuming the same safety continues.

How should you judge another strike?

Ask whether the remaining inventory could pay tribute if this sword disappeared. If not, compare the potential upgrade with losing today’s ability to pay, rather than comparing Success and Break in isolation.

For illustration only, at a fixed 40% Break chance with no protection, surviving three strikes is 0.6³ = 21.6%. Real grades and probabilities change after each result. This simplified calculation shows how repeated exposure compounds; it does not predict a particular run.

Questions answered